Early Season Spurs: Taking it Slow
Early Season Spurs: Taking it Slow
Adjusting to a 39-Year-Old Point Guard
It’s only been three games, but here are some striking stats:
Spurs fast-break points per game:
2023-24: 15.6 (9th in NBA)
2024-25: 8.7 (30th in NBA — dead last)
Victor Wembanyama points in transition per game:
2023-24: 4.0 (1st among NBA centers)
2024-25: 1.3 (far away from 1st)
Spurs pace (possessions per game):
2023-24: 101.1 (3rd in NBA)
2024-25: 97.4 (28th in NBA)
2024-25 Spurs offense with Wemby on the floor:
With Chris Paul: 96.7 (league-worst offense)
Without Chris Paul: 110.0 (17th-ranked offense)
(stats from Synergy, Basketball Reference, and Cleaning The Glass)
Last season, once Tre Jones became the starting point guard in January, the Spurs flew around in transition. Tre’s aggressive mentality and on-point hit-ahead passes, paired with Wemby being the best transition big in the NBA, made for a deadly combination.
39-year-old Chris Paul, however, is much more methodical. As the stats show, the Spurs are playing with among the slowest paces in the league so far. CP3 himself has yet to have a single point in transition this season.
This all makes sense: Chris Paul is 39 years old. Some aging is to be expected. Back in his younger days with the Clippers and Rockets, Chris Paul’s teams would consistently be above-average in transition frequency:
In his last few years, however, his team’s transition frequency has dipped tremendously:
This is all the more striking considering Wemby was the best transition big in the NBA last season (as discussed in part 1B of my Wemby season preview).
Some caveats:
There’s a natural learning period when new teammates play together, especially a point guard with a big-man partner. Even more so in light of Wemby’s limited preseason minutes. So the CP3 + Wemby synergy can improve with time.
On top of Wemby needing to ramp up, he also has been under the weather in recent games.
The Spurs are missing Devin Vassell, who was top-40 in the NBA in points in transition last season.
But IMO Devin was more the beneficiary of outlet passes from Tre Jones and Wemby, rather than leading the break himself.
The Rockets, whom the Spurs have played twice, are a good defense (top-10 last season).
But even so, in the two games against them, the Spurs had 9 and 4 fast break points. 6.5 fast break points per game is outrageously small.
Notably Tre Jones was out injured for those games.
Even with all those caveats, however, Father Time is undefeated.
So while I expect CP3 and Wemby to eventually gel in the halfcourt offense, it’s hard to imagine 39-year-old Chris Paul suddenly reversing the aging curve of the last few seasons and turning back into a fast-break-initiating speedster.
There’s also some veteran deference here. When Chris Paul is on the floor, I’ve noticed the young Spurs’ natural instincts when grabbing a rebound is to give the ball to the future Hall-of-Famer for him to jog up the floor, rather than look to run the ball up themselves.
Coach Pop has long preached playing with pace, so with time the coaching staff may encourage less deference and more pace.
Transition play is especially important for this Spurs offense, which is very limited in terms of shooting (especially with Vassell injured), so halfcourt offense will always be difficult.
Getting young players like Wemby and Sochan out running with pace and space gives a path to some much-needed easier and more efficient offense.
It’s obviously early in the season, but this major departure from last season’s fast-paced team is something to look out for. If a few months go by and there’s still a conspicuous lack of Wemby fast-break highlights (and his efficiency is a few ticks lower than expected with a few less free transition points per game), this will likely be the reason why.